The Transformative Power of Speculation
Scroll
The Assignment. Image Credit Scirens and Arizona State University
Article Summary
- Speculative Fiction and design are increasingly used by writers, corporations, and governments to explore and shape the future, turning imagination into practical tools for innovation and problem-solving, such as SciFutures’ work with companies like Lowe’s and Ford.
- Speculative Design, unlike traditional design, focuses on creating problems and provoking thought to inspire new perspectives and debates, encouraging collective redefinition of reality and imaginative solutions to complex global challenges.
- Design Fiction involves creating tangible prototypes, or “provotypes,” from possible near futures to provoke discussions and help people explore the consequences of their decisions, making abstract ideas more concrete and relatable to everyday experiences.
- With the rise of collective, inclusive future design, initiatives like the UN’s Futures Garden and global collaborations are using speculative storytelling and creative practices to address critical issues, engage diverse voices, and inspire positive, sustainable solutions for the future.
By Daniel Simons
As one of the world’s most esteemed Sci-Fi writers, Kim Stanley Robinson, likes to say, “We are now living in a Science Fiction novel, which we are all co-writing together.”
With mind-melting technological advancements like genetic engineering, quantum computing, robotics and artificial superintelligence knocking at our door, the future is unfurling at the speed of thought.
Whether we end up in an episode of Black Mirror or create the utopia of our dreams is up to us.
Speculation has the potential to expand our horizons, spawn innovations and shape our world. In recent years, the power of speculation has found a new warm embrace.
The imagination architecture that was once the sole domain of artists and writers is now a playground for designers, policymakers and everyday citizens who all want to be part of the hive mind’s epic and urgent task of finding a way out of the polycrisis and course-correct humanity’s future.
Virtual Bunnies and founders of The Metaverse Store
Wordsmiths building worlds
Writer Eliot Peper sees Speculative Fiction as the ultimate “possibility engine.”
According to Peper, “Science Fiction writers riff on reality like jazz musicians riff on standards, summoning strange new worlds, challenging assumptions, and subverting expectations.”
Great works of fiction can act as intellectual scaffolding, helping us to make sense of who we are and where we are going.
“Imagine trying to discuss state surveillance without Nineteen Eighty-Four or living in a simulation without The Matrix,” says Peper.
For Peper, the future isn’t a destination, it is our great constraint.
“The future is the story we tell ourselves about ourselves,” he says, “and we can only dream what we can imagine.”
That’s why Speculative Fiction can be so powerful, “It acts like yoga for the imagination, increasing our mental flexibility and building resilience.”
Speculative Fiction’s impact on the world has been profound. The invention of satellites has been attributed to the works of Arthur C. Clarke, William Gibson invented Cyberspace, Neal Stephenson’s Snow Crash gave us the Metaverse and Kim Stanley Robinson’s The Ministry for the Future has become essential reading for policymakers.
But while Speculative Fiction has historically shaped culture through film, TV and literature, the creative prowess and ability to synthesise vast amounts of complex information typically possessed by Science Fiction writers has inspired many corporations and governments to utilise their skills more directly.
Writers like Cory Doctorow, Neal Stephenson and Peper have all consulted with large corporations and institutions, using fiction as a tool to anticipate the future and guide innovation.
SciFutures, which claims to be the first company to found a business around the idea of ‘Science Fiction prototyping’, works with hundreds of Science Fiction writers to help their clients solve innovation and transformation challenges.
By collaborating with writers who have mastered the craft of speculation – including the Hugo Award-winning author of The Three-Body Problem, Ken Liu – SciFutures helps governments and corporations render the future in a visceral and tangible way that leads to a deeper understanding of possibilities and inspires a North Star to work towards.
One of the company’s most influential projects was a mixed reality ‘Holoroom’ that they created for Lowe’s.
Their concept for a simulator that helped users peer through a tablet and stroll through a digitally rendered future home was so well received that Lowe’s decided to collaborate with SciFutures to build a prototype of the idea.
They then went on to install permanent installations in their stores.
SciFutures also helped Ford imagine a world where nobody owns a car, and explored the future of warfare via the NATO 2040 initiative, where their team of writers created 14 future combat scenarios that included everything from hacked smart-guns to genetically engineered soldiers who emit fear-inducing hormones.
More recently, SciFutures has worked with Hershey, Del Monte and the US Navy and helped them to envision the future via Science Fiction storytelling, graphic novels, motion comics, prototyping, live action video and virtual reality.
By working with writers, futures thinkers and industry experts, consultants like SciFutures are able to help craft compelling visions of the future that drive innovation.
Science Fiction writers have the power to shape reality and drive change, but they’re not the only ones turning speculation into impact. The same visionary thinking that gave us Blade Runner and Star Trek is also being used in design to explore, challenge, and reimagine the future.
Speculative Design: creating problems, provoking questions
Unlike traditional design which focuses on creating innovative solutions or developing products to meet customer demands, Speculative Design ‘creates problems’.
According to Anthony Dunne and Fiona Raby, pioneers in the field and authors of the seminal 1990s text Speculate Everything, the practice “aims to open up new perspectives on what are sometimes called wicked problems, to create spaces for discussion and debate around alternative ways of being, and to inspire and encourage people’s imaginations to flow freely.”
More than a creative exercise, Speculative Design acts as “a catalyst for collectively redefining our relationship to reality.”
A rough contrast between traditional design and Speculative Design was explored in Dunne and Raby’s A/B Manifesto.
A/B Manifesto. Source: dunneandraby.co.uk
For James Auger, co-editor of Beyond Speculative Design, the practice “can operate free from the constraints imposed on market-based projects – such as economics, aesthetics, technology, politics, ethics, and history.”
By removing these limitations, he argues, Speculative Design “opens the door to a radically new way of thinking, unrestricted by commercial viability or immediate practicality.”
But Speculative Design isn’t about pure fantasy. The majority of speculative design projects tend to fall within a 10-to-15 year horizon and typically focus on possible future scenarios. Speculative designers are usually guided by Stuart Candy’s ‘Futures Cone’ which outlines a spectrum of potential futures to explore including: probable, plausible, possible or impossible.
By sparking debate and critical reflection, speculative designers help identify potential risks early and increase the likelihood of shaping more desirable futures.
Lucy McRae is one of the world’s leading speculative designers, her art-research studio experiments with future artifacts, film and conceptual fashion to investigate how emerging technologies may impact human evolution.
Through her gallery and museum-focused work, and her consulting with brands and Hollywood Writers’ rooms, McRae uses world-building and speculative design to explore the themes of human intimacy, reproductive technology, wellness culture, artificial intelligence and edible technology.
One of her projects, FutureKin, imagines a post-CRISPR world where children are gestated in laboratories.
Featuring mental health machines like ‘Compression Carpet’ and ‘Heavy Duty Love’ the project provokes critical reflection around the inevitable social, moral and ethical issues set to arise as gene editing capabilities and reproductive technologies continue to advance.
Another great example of conjuring up wild futures to provoke discussion comes from Melbourne, Australia.
Launched during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in response to Mark Zuckerberg’s religious pivot to virtual reality, The Metaverse Store was a unique exhibition created by the consultancy, Futureology.
Part NFT exhibition, part imagined futures inquiry, the project explored what might surprise or terrify us about the newly evolving Metaverse.
Staged as a digital shopfront from the year 2042 and curated by two time-traveling AI bunnies from 2072, the exhibition showcased products like injectable empathy, ‘Realiceuticals’ – designed to induce mystical experiences – and ‘mem-boxes’ that store memories and safeguard personal mind data.
It also explored the themes of climate change, virtual reality and the promise and perils of Neuralink technology.
According to Anna Reeves, one of Futureology’s founders, the project was so powerful that it even inspired a Master of Design professor to change his curriculum.
The Near Future Laboritory Design Fiction Workshop. Image Supplied by The Near Future Laboritory
Design Fiction makes the mundane magical
Design Fiction involves the creation of material artifacts that help us explore and understand possible futures.
Often considered to be a form of Speculative Design, The Near Future Laboratory’s Manual of Design Fiction, defines Design Fiction as “the practice of creating tangible and evocative prototypes from possible near futures, to help discover and represent the consequences of decision making.”
These artifacts – a product catalog for a company that doesn’t yet exist, a redesigned garbage bin for an imagined waste-free world, a hospital wristband from a speculative health system – don’t just depict the future; they make it real enough to hold.
In a 2024 article about what Design Fiction is and what it is not, Julian Bleeker, Founder of The Near Future Laboratory, sets the record straight.
“It’s the creation of material cultural artifacts that help us make sense of possibility. They are artifacts – not storyboards, nor scenarios, nor user personas.”
Adding, “An artifact is anything that an archeologist might find on an archeological dig. For example, things that you might find if you walked around a grocery store, hospital, corner convenience store or a backyard garage.”
Design Fiction artifacts represent possible, but not necessarily desired, products from the near future.
Rather than developing ‘prototypes’ that may have a real world application, Design Fiction creates ‘provotypes’ that provoke discussion.
The power of Design Fiction is that it makes abstract ideas concrete, making the future ‘feel real’ and creating a bridge between complex technological ideas and everyday human experiences.
The Near Future Laboratory sits at the forefront of the Design Fiction community. Their Manual of Design Fiction, laid the foundations for the field and their General Seminar ‘design sprints’ and Future Laboratory Podcast are a constant source of inspiration for designers and futurists around the world.
They argue that “Design Fiction and imagining possibility is existentially critical to addressing the substantial challenges we face,” and advise that “we must do it with a sense of play, humour, and creativity rather than dour, dire, doom-and-gloom surrender.”
With a passion for building the Design Fiction movement, and showcasing the power of creative artifacts, the Near Future Laboratory has produced a library of wonderful artifacts.
This includes an IKEA catalogue from the future, an AI newspaper from the future and ‘The definitive guide to understanding the psychic and existential challenges faced by androids,’ which, in honour of Phillip K. Dick, they titled Androids Dream of Electric Sheep.
They also collaborated with the LACMA Hyundai Artlab to help envision a SolarPunk residency program and they featured in the Netflix docuseries ‘The Future Of’.
Julian Bleecker. Image Supplied by The Near Future Laboratory
Speculating for better tomorrows
Speculative Fiction, Design Fiction, and Speculative Design have historically pushed boundaries and provoked deep reflection. Today, there’s a rising momentum to leverage these tools to actively dream up and inspire more positive futures
Understanding the need for a diverse collection of positive visions, the United Nations has recently made a concerted effort to embrace speculative thinking.
According to UNESCO Chair Holder Professor Michael Shamiyeh, “The future is not something one can do alone. It is something that requires people to work together.”
“Moving forward requires adopting a new stance that embraces plural perspectives on the world.”
Shamiyeh also points out that, until now, ideas about the future have largely come from a small group of creatives, leaders, or decision-makers, often resulting in limited perspectives.
For the future to truly become sustainable, he argues, a collective process of future design is essential – one that considers the well-being of all actors involved in the system.
The 2023 report from the UN Global Pulse, The Most Creative Look to the Future, champions this kind of collective vision, exploring how creative and speculative practices can unlock fresh solutions to the world’s most pressing issues.
The Futures Garden is an initiative of the EU Policy Lab that brings together futurists, designers and EU citizens to delve into emerging trends and issues critical to Europe’s future.
By creating inspiring alternative future scenarios through the use of fictional artifacts that invite reflection and debate, the project aims to ‘revolutionize policy creation by intertwining Speculative Design with creativity, empathy, and analytical insight.
The first two projects, or ‘seeds’ to come out of the Futures Garden, explore new ways to embrace non-human intelligence and support self-reflection.
Set in the ‘Symbiocene’ area of the 2050s, Symbiotic, explores a future where scientists have created a device that allows humans to experience the perceptions and sensory worlds of other intelligent beings, immersing them in their ‘umwelt’ and allowing them to understand how they feel and think.
With Inwards, audiences are invited to explore new practices and technologies that enhance self-reflection, empathy and a collective sense of togetherness.
According to Erica Bol, a Futures Garden Architect, the project is already beginning to have a real world impact.
“We have developed an experiment with policymakers on how to include the voice of nature in their policy design,” she tells Local Peoples.
“We are now at the phase of testing this in actual policies.”
With climate impacts and technological developments hitting some parts of society more disproportionately than others, and with the need for creative and diverse perspectives and solutions it is essential to empower as many people as possible to envision and co-create the future.
Globally, there has been a swell of inclusive projects aimed at visioning a broad range of preferred futures through the creative practice of Speculative Fiction.
The project is a reflection of a growing ecosystem that is harnessing the power of collective storytelling to envision the future.
Efforts like Climate Parables from Anthropocene Magazine, Grist’s Imagine 2200, Plan International’s Stories From The Future, and The Climate Almanac from Arizona State University’s Center for Science and the Imagination are all powerful examples of how sharing diverse and positive visions of the future can inspire change.
Taryn O’Neill is a writer, filmmaker and author of A Futurist’s Handbook for Hollywood, and Protopia: A New Horizon for Screenwriters. Scirens, the production company she co-founded, helped to create ‘The Assignment’, a hopeful short film produced in partnership with ASU’s Center for Science and the Imagination and released in conjunction with the Climate Action Almanac.
A thought leader who has been immersed in the worlds of Speculative Fiction and STEM for decades, Taryn compares the explosion of emerging technologies like regenerative biotech, genetic engineering, AI, quantum computing and other advancements, to a bamboo grove.
“These technologies have spent years forming vast, unseen root systems and now they’re suddenly sprouting into the ecosystem at an exponential rate, disrupting everything – and our biological evolution isn’t keeping pace with the advancements.”
Taryn sees speculative and solutions-focused storytelling as urgent and powerful.
“Our task is twofold: we need to inspire writers and creators to craft meaningful, forward-thinking narratives and we need to ensure that these stories reach audiences in a way that sparks real impact.”
Image Supplied by Scirens
The future now
From Science Fiction, to co-design and citizen engagement, the power of speculation is being used to redefine our relationship with reality and lasso a stable of preferred futures.
With the ‘bamboo grove’ of revolutionary technologies that threaten to completely disrupt our social fabric and redefine the human condition colliding with climate impacts and geo-political instability, the need for a fierce, considered and optimistic interrogation of the future has never been more urgent.
Buckminster Fuller said, “The best way to predict the future is to create it.”
Now, by embracing the full spectrum of speculative tools at our fingertips, we can all play a role in collectively envisioning alternative futures and co-creating the world we want to inhabit.
We’re all living in a Sci-Fi novel now, let’s try to make sure it has a happy ending.
