Designing for an Unpredictable Future
Scroll
Our world is rapidly digitising. In the past 30 years, we’ve seen dial-up transform into WiFi, brick phones evolve into smartphones, and clunky robotics systems become Chat GPT. In just a few short decades, we’ve witnessed the advent and rise of social media, the fall of Blockbusters everywhere, and the overhaul of analog services to make way for digital solutions. Thirty years ago, the world of today was nothing but an unknown. So, how can we prepare for what the next 30 years will bring?
By Rhiana Dabboussy
The role of the futurist and how futurist thinking can help prepare us for an unpredictable future. Futurists study and analyse research to predict what is going to happen in the future.
They look at past and current trends and patterns to project future environments which can then assist businesses and governments map out prospective scenarios and events. Using critical foresight, futurists explore different dimensions of change, and then speculate how those dimensions might impact future social, economic and environmental landscapes.
As our world rapidly shifts with time, it is important that we look ahead to ensure that we meet the needs of our future environments. Futurists are therefore key in making sure that we are prepared for this unpredictable future.
Such is the practice of Katy Cooper, City of Hobart’s Director of City Futures. Katy is both a futurist and a ‘now’ist, and is focused on engaging, creating and planning Hobart’s future stories and its strategic plans and urban designs.
Katy uses Tasmanian stories to design creative and curious forecasts that are guided by the brand of being uniquely Tasmanian. By leaning into complexity and volatility, Katy is able to predict alternative futures and growth for the island’s capital.
Image of Katy Cooper by Andrew Wilson
Jim Dators, from the University of Hawaii, identifies three laws when mapping future scenarios:
1. The future cannot be predicted as it does not yet exist. However, alternative futures can and should be forecast.
2. Though the future cannot be predicted, preferred futures can and should be envisioned, invented, implemented, continuously evaluated, revised and re-envisioned.
3. Any useful idea about the future should at first appear to be ridiculous.
By sticking to these principles, Katy has mapped out four alternative scenarios for Hobart’s future in 2050. But not all of the scenarios bring positive outcomes for the people of Tasmania.
While some futures project technological advancement, ecological prosperity and economic growth, others predict isolation, AI dependence and restricted travel and migration. In each of the scenarios, disruptive policy, digital transformation and industry modifications have resulted in significant change for the region.
The alternative futures – though not ideal – provide a valuable framework for building a preferred future story.
When we start considering alternative futures and stories, we can begin to look at how we might start to conceptualise and start conversations around them. Each future brings with it different concepts and contexts, providing insight into how that future story will track over time and what its risks, opportunities and consequences might be.
By examining the positives and negatives of each projected future, we can begin to build a preferred future story. This guides what we do next so that we can achieve the preferred outcome.
How systems thinking can help prepare us for a digital future
Systems thinking is all about interconnectivity. It is a holistic way of looking at how interrelated parts, relationships and factors achieve or contribute to an overarching goal. By using systems thinking, government can enhance the way it delivers services in a digital environment, now and into the future.
It can do this by focusing on three key ingredients:
1. Purpose
2. Collaboration
3. The end-user
Purpose
Systems thinking centres purpose. When we place purpose at the forefront of design, services are inevitably going to be more able to achieve their desired outcomes.
When setting up digital systems, it is important to think about what the system is supposed to enable. Think carefully about what future problem the service is trying to solve, what it will look like and who will see it.
Collaboration
People are everything, and collaborating openly and honestly with stakeholders and persons with lived and industry experience will ensure that a comprehensive range of opinions are being considered when transforming digital services.
This means that systems are more likely to be fit for purpose for current and future communities, and will ensure that everyone is on the same page when it comes to building future solutions.
Start with the end-user
Think about who the end-user is (and will be in the future) and work backward. Defining the end-user first will help determine what the system, service or solution will be. If a system does not add value to the end-user (or worse, causes them harm), then the system needs to be re-evaluated and redesigned.
If the end-user changes over time, it is important to continually revise the system to ensure that it is best addressing the needs of the user that it aims to serve.
Looking to the future
In our ever-increasingly digital age, it is not enough for government to address the challenges of today. Government must also predict and consider society’s future economic, social and environmental landscapes, and be on the front foot of pioneering systems, services and solutions that can meet our future needs.
To do this, government must be flexible and creative in its thinking, continually reflecting upon where we want to go and what we can challenge today to achieve our future goals. By laying the building blocks now, government can begin to create a preferred future that benefits all.
